Introduction


Part 1: Why Are Some Climate Variations Predictable At All?
+ Part 1: Sect 2
+ Part 1: Sect 3
+ Part 1: Sect 4
+ Part 1: Sect 5
+ Part 1: Sect 6
+ Part 1: Sect 7
+ Part 1: Sect 8
+ Part 1: Sect 9
+ Part 1: Sect 10
+ Exercise 1


Part 2: Using Models As Tools to Estimate the Predictability of Seasonal Climate
+ Part 2: Sect 2
+ Part 2: Sect 3
+ Part 2: Sect 4
+ Part 2: Sect 5
+ Exercise 2


Part 3: Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Basic Methods for Large-Scales and Downscaling
+ Part 3: Sect 2
+ Part 3: Sect 3
+ Part 3: Sect 4
+ Part 3: Sect 5
+ Part 3: Sect 6
+ Exercise 3


Part 4: Creating Information that can Better Support Decisions: Downscaling
+ Part 4: Sect 2
+ Part 4: Sect 3
+ Part 4: Sect 4
+ Part 4: Sect 5
+ Part 4: Sect 6
+ Part 4: Sect 7
+ Part 4: Sect 8
+ Part 4: Sect 9
+ Exercise 4


Conclusion
PART 1 : SECTION 6

Figure 1.6a-c shows the near-surface winds associated with the SST fields in Fig 1.3a-c. It was clear in Fig. 1.3c that the anomalous gradients of SST were substantial during the five warmest Nino3 seasons. From the Lindzen-Nigam model we expect this to drive anomalous winds of a substantial magnitude toward the positive SST anomalies, with a kick from the Coriolis effect. Generally this can be seen to be the case in Fig. 1.6c. Of course, the match is not perfect, as would be expected give the complex of processes operating in the climate system. Nonetheless, understanding the Lindzen-Nigam model gives us a good first understanding of why the SST variations are so important for year- to-year climate variations over the tropical oceans. Figure 1.6d-f shows a similar result for the tropical Atlantic pattern.

Fig 1.3a-3c. Maps of Sea-Surface Temperature and Anomalies

Fig 1.6a-c. Maps of Sea-Surface Temperature and Anomalies

Fig 1.6d-f. Maps of Sea-Surface Temperature and Anomalies

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